In the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic, interest rates for mortgages dropped to historic lows. Predictably, home buyers made hay, taking full advantage of the favorable financial environment to pick up new homes and refinancing mortgages on their existing homes. Startups operating in the financial side of the real estate tech market suddenly faced a surge in demand, and many departed on hiring sprees to keep up.
But as those interest rates, housing prices and inflation began to climb back up, demand slowed dramatically. This meant that the once high-flying startups were suddenly dealing with the opposite problem — too many employees and not enough transactions to make money.
Layoffs became widespread. Shutdowns were a thing again. As interest rates soared even higher, the once frothy market morphed into an environment where only the fittest could survive.
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To get a sense of how investors who have backed proptech startups with a financial focus are dealing with the market shift, we reached out to three active investors. The trio shared their thoughts on everything from what types of startups in the home buying and lending space have the best shot at survival to the advice they are giving startups in their portfolios.
Pete Flint, general partner of NFX, noted that the chances of survival are higher for proptech startups that let consumers fractionally invest in properties and increase access for those seeking a rent-to-own approach. “The best thing founders can do during a downturn is move quickly and efficiently, and evolve their offering to match the new needs of the market. This will help them capture more market share, which will give them the highest chance of survival,” he said.
Nima Wedlake, principal at Thomvest Ventures, agreed, noting that agility is a critical trait. “Startups that survive this period will adapt their product offerings to meet the needs of today’s homeowners and buyers,” he said.
In such a climate, companies that help others navigate tough times seem to be in special demand. “Companies that sell software that enables cost-cutting or additional lead-generation opportunities are seeing accelerating adoption as incumbent mortgage companies realize they need an edge to drive demand,” Zach Aarons, co-founder and general partner of MetaProp, pointed out.
“If a startup can prove its users see significant savings, then they shouldn’t have a hard time being successful in this market,” he said.
We spoke with:
Editor’s note: For a more complete picture, we’re examining the proptech sector from three different angles. This survey covers proptech startups with a financial focus, and we’ll soon publish a survey that looks at upcoming tech in the space, and another that examines the environmental impact of proptech and what startups are doing to minimize their footprint.
Pete Flint, general partner, NFX
Startups doing anything related to home buying or lending have struggled this year. Which types of startups operating in the home buying/lending space do you think have the highest chances of survival?
Resilient proptech companies have to be able to navigate the cyclicality of the industry. It is embedded in the category, and with the long housing and tech boom, many founders have underestimated this.
In my view, it is less about the “type” of startup that is more likely to survive now and more about what the startups do to respond to this moment. The best thing founders can do during a downturn is move quickly and efficiently, and evolve their offering to match the new needs of the market. This will help them capture more market share, which will give them the highest chance of survival.
The verticals that we think will be more resilient during this economy are: